Greeting servants of the First Lich!
So with the coming of spring, and public COVID vaccination happening right now, we wanted to give everyone an update on what’s going on with Hollow Dawn. We’ve been keeping a close eye on the COVID situation and from what we can tell, we think that by fall, we will be good to go with having an in-person event without masks. There is no certainty of course, but I would like to turn this part of the post over specifically to Taylor and Jeff who have been looking into this.
First, there is no way to reach zero risk , but we want to share some of the resources and information we are using when we estimate that a “normal” LARP event in October will have comparatively low risk.
Here is a New York Times piece from Feb. 20, 2021 showing various models for how/when the US will approach some level of herd immunity. Because you may hit a paywall, here is a snipped plot showing a model that assumes vaccination continues at the February pace, and that people around the country begin to ease up their safety precautions in the spring (these both seem like reasonably conservative assumptions). The article says that we should be gaining herd immunity benefits sometime between July and October of this year.
One point to take away from the above piece is that variants of the virus are the biggest unknown variable right now. Changes in that area can have a big impact. Recent news on this front has been fairly positive with news that the “Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 shot 91% effective in updated data, protective against South African variant.”
The question of whether vaccinated people can still spread the virus remains unanswered, but the preliminary evidence is promising. Can Vaccinated People Spread the Virus? We Don’t Know, Scientists Say.
On the same topic, as of April 2nd, 2021, the CDC Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People includes data showing that there is likely an 80-94% reduction in asymptomatic transmission after being vaccinated.
On March 30th the NY Times also released “What Can You Do Once You’re Vaccinated?” which allows you to select the details of your activity and get a sense of the relevant risk. Using this tool will not give you a clear yes/no answer for whether a normal LARP event is okay for you, but it can help you think about your personal levels of risk and your comfort level with those risks.
- Taylor and Jeff
At this point we are looking at either a one-night, or a two-night camping event in the early October time frame. For this event, in order to attend, we are going to be requiring a valid proof of COVID vaccination that has occurred at least three weeks prior to the event (either a single shot of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine or the second shot for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine). The only exception will be for medical reasons and in that case, we will need to see proof of the exemption. As a group we’ve weighed the pros and cons of each option, and we feel like this was the safest choice for our community.
We know there are going to be many questions regarding this event that comes up. For many of them we don’t have answers yet. We will try and get the FAQ below and do a town hall to answer any questions that we are able to.
In addition, we’d like to award anyone in our community, whether you are coming to what we are calling the “prototype” fall event or not 4 Service Points if you show us proof of vaccination. We’ll release more details in the future
If you are having issues finding an appointment for a COVID vaccination, please reach out to our community. Many of us have resources to help find upcoming appointments and have been very successful in finding appointments for others. Just reach out on Discord and I’m sure we can help point you in the right direction.
Mike, Dia, Taylor, William, Jeff and Mac
Q: What if I already paid my game fee?
A: If you already paid your game fee, you can either request a refund, or we can hold it and roll it over to the game series next year. You can reach out to firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
Q: What if I donated to the gofundme?
A: Honest answer here, most of that money we've already spend to cover props and supplies leading up to the three games. We would prefer to just have your rewards roll over to next year. If you would like a refund, contact Mike at email@example.com and he'll make sure you get reimbursed.